The European elections of May 26th were the first step of a journey that will lead to the renewal of all the main political offices within the EU. It starts with the election of the new president of the European Parliament, who will replace the Italian Antonio Tajani, and will continue with the choice of the new European Commission (and its president, who will replace Jean-Claude Juncker ), up to the new president of the European Central Bank (the successor of Mario Draghi) and the new president of the European Council (the Polish Donald Tusk office expires at the end of November).
After the May 26 vote, the first major event will be the Brussels European Council on June 20-21. At the meeting the Heads of State or Government of the European Union States will make a first assessment of the outcome of the European elections. Above all, they will discuss who will be the new president of the EU Commission, the new number one of the European Council itself, the new president of the European Central Bank and who will be the new High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy (today is the Italian Federica Mogherini), that is to say the EU foreign minister.
The first meeting of the European Parliament will be the 2 July. The ninth legislature of the European Parliament will officially begin on Tuesday 2nd July. On that occasion the new president of the European Parliament, among many other parliamentarian seats, will be set.
Moreover, the election of the President of the Commission will be July 15. Before the summer break, the European Parliament will discuss and vote for the candidacy of the President of the European Commission, proposed by the European Council. If the president is elected he will be able to proceed with the nomination of the EU commissioners, in common agreement with the European Council.
On the 16 of September the EU Parliament will begin the procedure for examining candidates for the composition of the new Commission. By October 24, Parliament will approve the new EU executive (formed by a Commissioner for each of the 28 EU states, including the president and the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy). On 17-18 October, at the Brussels European Council, the EU heads of state and government will take note of the future structure of the Commission and will appoint the High Representative for the Common Foreign and Security Policy, in agreement with the Commission President .
The new Commission will officially take office on 1 November. Also on 1 November, Mario Draghi’s successor at the top of the ECB will also be in charge. The last change is scheduled for December 1, when the new president of the European Council will take office, whose role is to coordinate the work of the body itself.
Basically the 1stof November the whole machine will be ready for the upcoming five years.
Who will lead the presidency of the Commission? Due to the Spitzencandidate system, mutated by Germany, the next president should be the candidate presented by the EPP party Manfred Weber. The EPP is the hugest group in the EP so he, and it, should be able to have a majority, basically being enough powerful, in the institution to rule it.
De jure, there is more than a candidate, de facto only two, maybe three, could have a realistic hope to win the race.
How the new Commission will face Migration? And the Parliament? And the Council?
Now it is very very tough try to make any provisions. Until a strong external factor will mess up the existing, the current landscape, it is hard to image a change. Even if Orban said no to Salvini and his party has remained in the EPP, however the alliance against migrants seems to be solid as usual. Moreover if we consider that in Denmark Socialists against opened migration policies has won the elections and what is happening between Italy and Germany during the past six months but revealed just these days, all of that could let think us that there will be no change about migration policy.
The only external factor that could maybe let change something is the intention of proceeding against the EU Commission by two young layers working for the International Crime Court.
Even if currently it is just beginning maybe if any “European Union officials and member states [will be] prosecuted for crimes against humanity” maybe they could change a bit they way they manage the issue.