Estimated time of reading: ~ 5 minutes

After the Covid-19 pandemic and a series of international crises that have weakened the economic and social fabric throughout the European Union, the prospect of a new conflict in the Middle East, between Israel and Iran, has alarmed all political decision-makers and entrepreneurs on the continent. The ceasefire inspired by US President Donald Trump came after 10 days of mutual attacks, with the Iranian nuclear program probably still active, despite the damage suffered by various infrastructures on the country’s territory. This does not ensure future pacification in the Middle East but in some ways increases the prospect of general instability that has long characterized the region and that could also radiate towards Europe. Certainly, the risks for European societies cannot be underestimated, both in terms of security and economics. While immediate attention on the war between Israel and Iran focused mainly on geopolitical strategies and energy markets, the broader social consequences for Europe could be equally, if not more, destabilizing, especially in the medium and long term. From rising living costs to increased migration pressure and political polarization, the ripple effects of another conflict in the Middle East may in fact severely strain European cohesion, public trust, and social resilience.

As already happened with other crises, one of the most direct impacts would come from inflation driven by energy and shipping cost spikes, placing higher pressure on household budgets across Europe. An increase in energy bills would reduce real incomes, especially among lower- and middle-income families, widening social inequalities in the EU societies. The result would likely be increased dissatisfaction, protest movements, and growing distrust in political institutions perceived as unable to shield citizens from external shocks. Add to all these also the political dimension, as European public opinions are already significantly polarised with respect to the ongoing conflicts at a global level and in particular call for an initiative by their governments and the European Commission against the Israeli authorities, considered responsible for crimes against civilians in Gaza and now for having opened a new war front in Iran.

Moreover, the Israel-Iran war risks inflaming intercommunal tensions within Europe’s diverse populations. Many European cities are home to both Jewish and Muslim communities, and escalations in the Middle East often lead to a rise in hate crimes, protest clashes, and political friction. Misinformation and disinformation spread rapidly during such crises, further polarizing public opinion and undermining social trust. In response, EU governments may face increased pressure to ramp up internal security efforts, deploying more personnel in order to protect sensitive spots, such as airports, train stations, embassies, religious sites, and schools, from terrorist attacks. While some public support for such measures may be expected, there is also a risk of social fatigue: citizens already stretched by economic stress and political uncertainty may resist further security commitments or budget reallocations away from social services. Without clear contingency planning or unified leadership, Europe risks being caught in a whirlwind of consequences for which it is not yet prepared, as has already happened various times in the past few years.

Written by: Francesco Marino